President William Ruto officially launched Raila Odinga’s candidacy for the African Union Commission (AUC) chairperson on August 27, 2024, at State House, Nairobi.
This event marked the beginning of Odinga’s campaign to succeed Moussa Faki Mahamat, whose term ends in February 2025. READ FULL STORY
The launch was attended by several East African leaders, including Presidents Yoweri Museveni of Uganda, Samia Suluhu of Tanzania, and Salva Kiir of South Sudan, showcasing broad regional support for Odinga’s bid.
Raila’s campaign is backed by multiple East African countries, with leaders emphasizing his commitment to democracy and development.
Notably, Burundian Prime Minister Gervais Ndirakobuca and Rwandan officials praised his qualifications and vision for the continent.
Presidents least likely to vote for Raila as AUC Chair
Raila’s bid for the AUC chairperson faces significant challenges rooted in regional alliances and historical contexts.
One of the primary factors is the linguistic divide in Africa, particularly between Francophone and Anglophone nations.
Many African countries align themselves along these linguistic lines, with Francophone nations often supporting candidates from their own bloc.
As an Anglophone candidate from Kenya, Raila may struggle to garner support from Francophone countries which are likely to lean towards candidates from their linguistic group, such as Mahmoud Youssouf from Djibouti.
Francophone nations are Benin led by Patrice Talon, Burkina Faso (Ibrahim Traoré), Burundi (Évariste Ndayishimiye), Cameroon (Paul Biya), Central African Republic (Faustin-Archange Touadéra) and Chad which is currently being led by Mahamat Idriss Déby Itno.
Others are Comoros which is under the leadership of Azali Assoumani, Congo (Denis Sassou Nguesso), Democratic Republic of Congo (Félix Tshisekedi), Djibouti (Ismaïl Omar Guelleh), Equatorial Guinea (Teodoro Obiang Nguema Mbasogo) and Gabon (Brice Oligui).
Other hand Francophone nations are Ivory Coast which is under the leadership of Alassane Ouattara, Madagascar (Andry Rajoelina), Mali (Assimi Goïta), Niger, Senegal (Macky Sall), Seychelles (Wavel Ramkalawan) and Togo (Faure Gnassingbé).
Presidents from the aforementioned Francophone nations are less likely to vote for Raila but instead vote for Djibouti’s Youssouf.
Additionally, the Southern Africa Development Community (SADC) region has historically shown a preference for candidates from within its own bloc.
Countries such as Zimbabwe, Namibia, and South Africa may prioritize regional solidarity over external candidates, making it difficult for Odinga to secure votes from this area.
This regional loyalty can significantly impact his chances of success in the election.
